2010 Fantasy Baseball Value - Pitchers

延續前一篇的話題, 來看看投手部份的成績

先發投手

前十名

1. Roy Halladay, 33.74
2. Adam Wainwright, 31.86
3. Felix Hernandez, 27.57
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, 24.10
5. Jered Weaver, 22.01
6. Roy Oswalt, 21.95
7. David Price, 21.88
8. Jon Lester, 21.23
9. CC Sabathia, 20.53
10. Mat Latos, 20.09

令人驚喜的球員

1. David Price, +20.50 (1.37 → 21.88)
2. Mat Latos, +16.87 (3.22 → 20.09)
3. Clay Buchholz, +16.31 (0.74 → 17.05)
4. Trevor Cahill, +16.73 (0.00 → 16.73)
5. Ubaldo Jimenez, +14.75 (9.35 → 24.10)
6. Roy Oswalt, +14.22 (7.74 → 21.95)
7. Jered Weaver, +13.99 (8.01 → 22.01)
8. Adam Wainwright, +13.38 (18.48 → 31.86)
9. Tim Hudson, +12.72 (3.58 → 12.72)
10. Brett Myers, +11.37 (0.00 → 11.37)
11. Francisco Liriano, +11.12 (0.00 → 11.12)

令人失望的球員

1. Javier Vazquez, -29.91 (21.14 → -8.77)
2. Josh Beckett, -31.74 (18.05 → -13.69)
3. Zack Greinke, -23.76 (24.38 → 0.62)
4. Scott Kazmir, -24.93 (6.59 → -18.34)
5. Dan Haren, -20.07 (25.30 → 5.23)
6. James Shields, -19.32 (11.20 → -8.12)
7. A.J. Burnett, -18.59 (4.57 → -14.01)
8. Rich Harden, -24.08 (11.05 → -13.02)
9. Tim Lincecum, -16.35 (31.35 → 15.00)
10. Jair Jurrjens, -18.38 (12.14 → -6.24)

後援投手

前十名

1. Billy Wagner, 25.24
2. Heath Bell, 21.10
3. Rafael Soriano, 19.86
4. Brian Wilson, 19.62
5. Neftali Feliz, 17.83
6. Carlos Marmol, 17.41
7. Joakim Soria, 15.80
8. Mariano Rivera, 14.47
9. Matt Capps, 14.43
10. John Axford, 14.04

令人驚喜的球員

1. Neftali Feliz, +13.67 (4.17 → 17.83)
2. John Axford, +14.04 (0.00 → 14.04)
3. Billy Wagner, +9.25 (15.99 → 25.24)
4. Hong-Chih Kuo, +9.00 (2.63 → 11.63)
5. Tyler Clippard, +8.10 (1.90 → 10.01)
6. Chris Perez, +7.53 (1.78 → 9.31)
7. Sean Marshall, +7.23 (0.00 → 7.23)
8. Joaquin Benoit, +7.17 (0.00 → 7.17)
9. Matt Belisle, +6.70 (0.00 → 6.70)
10. Evan Meek, +6.65 (0.00 → 6.65)

令人失望的球員

1. Chad Qualls, -26.00 (14.57 → -11.43)
2. Francisco Rodriguez, -25.07 (16.38 → -8.68)
3. Trevor Hoffman, -22.13 (15.59 → -6.54)
4. Jonathan Broxton, -19.89 (24.13 → 4.24)
5. Frank Francisco, -12.35 (13.53 → 1.18)
6. Kerry Wood, -12.77 (12.50 → -0.27)
7. Bobby Jenks, -10.95 (13.43 → 2.48)
8. Huston Street, -13.73 (19.79 → 6.05)
9. George Sherrill, -17.43 (5.19 → -12.24)
10. Jonathan Papelbon, -9.23 (20.63 → 11.40)

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Value - Batters

2010年Fantasy Value季末結算: Google文件連結

聯盟設定為Yahoo! Public League, 季前價值是使用各家預測加權平均的成績所算出的.

以下依照守位快速檢視一下打者部份:

捕手

前三名

1. Joe Mauer, 21.00
2. Victor Martinez, 18.69
3. Brian McCann, 15.42

令人驚喜的球員

1. Buster Posey, +13.81 (0.00 → 13.81)
2. John Buck, +10.73 (0.00 → 10.73)
3. Miguel Olivo, +7.97 (0.00 → 7.97)

令人失望的球員

1. Russell Martin, -17.03 (10.49 → -6.53)
2. Matt Wieters, -10.64 (7.39 → -3.25)
3. Joe Mauer, -10.81 (31.80 → 21.00)

一壘手

前三名

1. Albert Pujols, 45.37
2. Joey Votto, 42.53
3. Miguel Cabrera, 42.00

令人驚喜的球員

1. Paul Korneko, +28.47 (3.21 → 31.68)
2. Joey Votto, +20.49 (22.04 → 42.53)
3. Aubrey Huff, +21.95 (0.00 → 21.95)

令人失望的球員

1. Lance Berkman, -23.11 (16.67 → -6.44)
2. Prince Fielder, -18.54 (34.54 → 16.00)
3. Ryan Howard, -16.09 (37.31 → 21.21)

沒看到Adam Lind和Carlos Lee名字的原因是因為他們根據季初的守位算在外野手.

二壘手

前三名

1. Robinson Cano, 32.25
2. Dan Uggla, 27.23
3. Rickie Weeks, 22.97

令人驚喜的球員

1. Rickie Weeks, +19.19 (3.78 → 22.97)
2. Kelly Johnson, +19.25 (0.00 → 19.25)
3. Robinson Cano, +15.89 (16.37 → 32.25)
4. Dan Uggla, +15.44 (11.79 → 27.23)

令人失望的球員

1. Jose Lopez, -17.58 (5.97 → -11.62)
2. Gordon Beckham, -15.00 (6.98 → -8.02)
3. Aaron Hill, -14.39 (11.71 → -2.68)

二壘手的排名大洗牌, 這裡還不算受傷的Utley, Kinsler和Roberts.

三壘手

前三名

1. Jose Bautista, 40.46
2. David Wright, 27.50
3. Evan Longoria, 26.22

令人驚喜的球員

1. Jose Bautista, +40.46 (0.00 → 40.46)
2. Adrian Beltre, +20.19 (6.04 → 26.22)
3. Michael Young, +8.14 (9.73 → 17.87)

令人失望的球員

1. Paolo Sandoval, -23.76 (22.12 → -1.64)
2. Mark Reynolds, -19.84 (26.72 → 6.88)
3. Alex Rodriguez, -16.31 (37.74 → 21.43)

游擊手

前三名

1. Hanley Ramirez, 27.53
2. Troy Tulowitzki, 26.74
3. Derek Jeter, 13.18

令人驚喜的球員

1. Jose Reyes, +8.16 (4.93 → 13.09)
2. Alex Gonzalez, +6.36 (0.00 → 6.36)
3. Troy Tulowitzki, +5.57 (21.16 → 26.74)
   考慮到他因傷缺陣了一陣, 效率確實是比季前的預測成績好很多, 不過他季前的O-Rank相當高, 所以似乎也稱不上驚喜?

令人失望的球員

1. Jimmy Rollins, -30.30 (23.36 → -6.94)
   就算不看因傷缺賽的部份也還是糟了點
2. Hanley Ramirez, -16.55 (44.08 → 27.53)
3. Alcides Escobar, -15.98 (3.04 → -12.94)

游擊手和二壘手剛好相反, 令人意外的選手不多.

外野手

前十名

1. Carlos Gonzalez, 49.26
   同時也是今年全聯盟FB價值最高的球員
2. Carl Crawford, 39.92
3. Josh Hamilton, 37.50
4. Ryan Braun, 30.10
5. Matt Holliday, 29.82
6. Alex Rios, 27.25
7. Jayson Werth, 26.79
8. Vladimir Guerrero, 26.01
9. Chris Young, 24.73
10. Shin-Soo Choo, 24.44

令人驚喜的球員

1. Carlos Gonzalez, +41.31 (7.95 → 49.26)
   也是全聯盟超出季前預期最多的球員
2. Josh Hamilton, +29.70 (7.80 → 37.50)
3. Chris Young, +24.73 (0.00 → 24.73)
4. Alex Rios, +20.65 (6.60 → 27.25)
5. Drew Stubbs, +20.10 (0.00 → 20.10)
6. Delmon Young, +19.73 (0.42 → 20.15)
7. Angel Pagan, +19.28 (0.00 → 19.28)
8. Brett Gardner, +17.38 (0.00 → 17.38)
9. Juan Pierre, +16.89 (5.99 → 22.88)
10. Vladimir Guerrero, +16.37 (9.63 → 26.01)

令人失望的球員

1. Nate McLouth, -38.31 (17.28 → -21.03)
   因傷缺陣的一個半月可以不算, 但是被下放造成的損失就該算進去了.
2. Adam Lind, -20.42 (18.23 → -2.19)
3. Matt Kemp, -18.40 (35.88 → 17.47)
4. Brad Hawpe, -22.27 (7.92 → -14.36)
5. Justin Upton, -15.39 (26.06 → 10.67)
6. Carlos Lee, -15.99 (21.62 → 5.63)
7. Jason Bay, -33.43 (25.43 → -8.00)
   如果把他的成績放大到590AB大概值$7.5, 即使這樣還是很糟糕.
8. Julio Borbon, -15.35 (10.96 → -4.39)
9. Ryan Ludwick, -14.06 (12.49 → -1.57)
10. Nyjer Morgan, -13.82 (8.62 → -5.19)

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$10 + $10 + $10 = $30?

原文見此: http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/does-10-10-10-30-part-i/

你會拿一個$30的球員去換三個$10的球員嗎?

LPP在這篇文章中分析了少換多的交易. 觀念沒有很新奇, 但講得挺清楚的.

首先, 得到三名球員的這隊需要丟出陣中兩名最差的球員, 而丟出三個球員的這隊需要由FA補上兩名球員. 所以更恰當的比較是$30+$1+$1換$11+$11+$10, 雙方價值差不多, 甚至可能總和成績也差不多.

兩個包裹最大的差別是: 當一個$5~$10的球員突然出現在FA時, 前者可以將一名$1球員換掉以增強球隊陣容, 但後者無法因此得利.

換言之, 收到$30+$1+$1這組的球隊得到了彈性.

另一個差別在於, 當$30球員受傷時, 球隊的損失是$10球員受傷的三倍; 但$1球員受傷對球隊幾乎不會造成傷害. 如果球員們的受傷機率相同, 那兩個包裹因傷損失的期望值平均來說也是相同的.

不同的地方在於: $30球員受傷的機率比較低, 但一旦受傷造成的損失較大. 3個$10球員風險較分散, 其中有人受傷的機率較高, 但大傷害的機率較低.

換言之, 如果拿到$30+$1+$1這組的有80%的機會第一名和20%第十名, $11+$10+$10這組可能是51%第一名, 38%第三名, 10%第七名, 1%第十名. 如果GM不在意第三名和第十名的差別, 只在意奪冠的機率, 那前者仍是比較好的選擇.

特殊情況是: 如果已經領先到可以容忍一名$10球員受傷仍能奪冠時, 以少換多不失為一種分散風險的做法.

總體來講, 在這兩組包裹中選擇$30+$1+$1的組合, 在現實中是比較有利的. 有經驗的GM們瞭解這一點(不管有沒有意識到), 所以他們不會花太多資源在$5~$20這個等級的球員上, 而是儘量採用高價球員和替代等級球員的組合, 來保持球隊陣容的彈性.

這個問題對Fantasy估價器的影響尤其明顯. 如果純由數據來看, 高價球員在喊價選秀上普遍性的被overpaid, 而中價球員大都被underpaid. 但這並不見得是GM們在價值評估上犯了錯誤, 而是一般估價器無法確實地反映高價球員帶來的陣容彈性的價值.

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2009 Forecast Evaluations

今天突然心血來潮逛到很久沒看的FB Blog: Last Player Picked, 發現多了很多新文章. LPP的FB文章都很不錯, 理路正確, 邏輯清楚, 而且寫得不難懂. 有時間再來寫一些文章的心得.

不過首先要講的是上面提到的另一個網站Steamer整理的2009各家預測打擊成績比較.

在這篇文章中,Steamer以FB的觀點比較了八個預測成績: Steamer自身, Marcel, PECOTA, Chone, ZiPS, SportingNews, Fantistics和2008年成績.

結論是: Chone和ZiPS在所有比率數據( (R+RBI)/PA, HR/AB, SB/PA, OPS)上都位居前兩名, Chone略勝一點, 但兩者的預測成績極為接近.

Fantistics和SportingNews兩個人工預測差不多在所有比率數據都輸給公式型預測, 當然還是比直接複製2008年成績好一些. 不過Fantistics在PA的預測遙遙領先, 連帶著在SGPs(FB Value)上也取得了顯著的勝利.

當然Fantistics有點勝之不武, 因為Chone, ZiPS和PECOTA沒有真的去預測打者的PA, Marcel的PA預測也很簡單. 而打者的FB Value和打席數又高度相關, 所以Fantistics可靠著打席準確度的大幅領先在FB Value預測稱王.

不過我們從這裡得到的收穫是: 公式預測在比率數據上的表現明顯比專家預測好, 但預測打席數差距太大所以不實用. 我們可以兼取兩家之長, 以專家預測的打席數, 乘上公式預測中最佳的Chone或ZiPS(或兩者平均, 反正兩個數據差不多)的比率數據, 簡單地得到更佳的預測.

Steamer上也有投手的預測成績比較, 不過我覺得比較的方法沒有打者這篇好.

同樣的是, 公式預測在比率數據上的表現仍然比兩個專家預測好, ZiPS在ERA和WHIP上大幅領先, 但是K/9的表現不好. Fantistics仍是在IP上穩居第一, 並靠此奪下SGPs的冠軍. 我們也可以用同樣的方法組合兩種預測來提高準確度.

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Evaluate Lineups - 2010 Rankings

預測先發打線得分總排名

NL

Tier 1

#1 Philadelphia Phillies : 820

Tier 2

#2 St. Louis Cardinals : 792

#3 Atlanta Braves : 791

#4 Arizona Diamondbacks : 781

#5 Los Angeles Dodgers : 777

Tier 3

#6 Chicago Cubs : 767

#7 New York Mets : 766

#8 Colorado Rockies : 750

Tier 4

#9 Florida Marlins : 708

#10 Milwaukee Brewers : 698

#11 Washington Nationals : 689

#12 San Francisco Giants : 688

#13 Pittsburgh Pirates : 683

#14 Cincinnati Reds : 681

Tier 5

#15 Houston Astros : 662

Tier 6

#16 San Diego Padres : 580

AL

Tier 1

#1 Boston Red Sox : 918

#2 New York Yankees : 901

Tier 2

#3 Minnesota Twins : 860

Tier 3

#4 Los Angeles Angels : 833

#5 Texas Rangers : 829

Tier 4

#6 Tampa Bay Rays : 813

#7 Baltimore Orioles : 813

#8 Cleveland Indians : 802

Tier 5

#9 Chicago White Sox : 760

Tier 6

#10 Oakland Athletics : 729

#11 Detroit Tigers : 722

#12 Kansas City Royals : 721

#13 Toronto Blue Jays : 719

#14 Seattle Mariners : 718

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 719

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bautista,Jose	0.227	0.323	0.389	0.317
2	Hill,Aaron	0.275	0.325	0.447	0.335
3	Lind,Adam	0.277	0.341	0.488	0.356
4	Wells,Vernon	0.260	0.319	0.430	0.327
5	Overbay,Lyle	0.251	0.343	0.416	0.335
6	Encarnacion,Edwin	0.233	0.312	0.397	0.312
7	Buck,John	0.221	0.288	0.422	0.305
8	Gonzalez,Sea Bass	0.231	0.277	0.354	0.277
9	Snider,Travis	0.240	0.332	0.452	0.339

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 723

(恐怖的是這已經是藍鳥拿得出來的最佳打線了)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bautista,Jose	0.227	0.323	0.389	0.317
2	Overbay,Lyle	0.251	0.343	0.416	0.335
3	Snider,Travis	0.240	0.332	0.452	0.339
4	Lind,Adam	0.277	0.341	0.488	0.356
5	Hill,Aaron	0.275	0.325	0.447	0.335
6	Wells,Vernon	0.260	0.319	0.430	0.327
7	Encarnacion,Edwin	0.233	0.312	0.397	0.312
8	Buck,John	0.221	0.288	0.422	0.305
9	Gonzalez,Sea Bass	0.231	0.277	0.354	0.277

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 813

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bartlett,Jason	0.286	0.343	0.405	0.335
2	Crawford,Carl	0.293	0.344	0.444	0.353
3	Zobrist,Ben	0.261	0.358	0.443	0.354
4	Longoria,Evan	0.272	0.351	0.525	0.376
5	Pena,Carlos	0.243	0.361	0.524	0.378
6	Upton,B.J.	0.260	0.349	0.410	0.341
7	Burrell,Pat	0.230	0.342	0.415	0.336
8	Shoppach,Kelly	0.219	0.293	0.414	0.307
9	Rodriguez,Sean	0.229	0.300	0.400	0.307

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 819

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Burrell,Pat	0.230	0.342	0.415	0.336
2	Pena,Carlos	0.243	0.361	0.524	0.378
3	Zobrist,Ben	0.261	0.358	0.443	0.354
4	Longoria,Evan	0.272	0.351	0.525	0.376
5	Upton,B.J.	0.260	0.349	0.410	0.341
6	Crawford,Carl	0.293	0.344	0.444	0.353
7	Bartlett,Jason	0.286	0.343	0.405	0.335
8	Rodriguez,Sean	0.229	0.300	0.400	0.307
9	Shoppach,Kelly	0.219	0.293	0.414	0.307

Optimized Lineup with Aybar

Expected Runs/Season: 833

(ZiPS預測: Joe Dillon > Willy Aybar > Matt Joyce > Sean Rodriguez.)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Burrell,Pat	0.230	0.342	0.415	0.336
2	Pena,Carlos	0.243	0.361	0.524	0.378
3	Zobrist,Ben	0.261	0.358	0.443	0.354
4	Longoria,Evan	0.272	0.351	0.525	0.376
5	Upton,B.J.	0.260	0.349	0.410	0.341
6	Crawford,Carl	0.293	0.344	0.444	0.353
7	Bartlett,Jason	0.286	0.343	0.405	0.335
8	Aybar,Willy	0.257	0.331	0.417	0.327
9	Shoppach,Kelly	0.219	0.293	0.414	0.307

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 New York Yankees

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 901

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jeter,Derek	0.303	0.369	0.424	0.355
2	Johnson,Nick	0.275	0.410	0.433	0.378
3	Teixeira,Mark	0.280	0.367	0.505	0.376
4	Rodriguez,Alex	0.281	0.375	0.526	0.390
5	Cano,Robinson	0.296	0.334	0.474	0.346
6	Posada,Jorge	0.256	0.338	0.430	0.338
7	Granderson,Curtis	0.256	0.335	0.473	0.351
8	Swisher,Nick	0.243	0.354	0.446	0.351
9	Gardner,Brett	0.253	0.330	0.344	0.315

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 902

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jeter,Derek	0.303	0.369	0.424	0.355
2	Johnson,Nick	0.275	0.410	0.433	0.378
3	Rodriguez,Alex	0.281	0.375	0.526	0.390
4	Teixeira,Mark	0.280	0.367	0.505	0.376
5	Cano,Robinson	0.296	0.334	0.474	0.346
6	Posada,Jorge	0.256	0.338	0.430	0.338
7	Swisher,Nick	0.243	0.354	0.446	0.351
8	Granderson,Curtis	0.256	0.335	0.473	0.351
9	Gardner,Brett	0.253	0.330	0.344	0.315

Optimized Lineup with Thames

Expected Runs/Season: 913

(ZiPS認定Yankees最好的九名打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Johnson,Nick	0.275	0.410	0.433	0.378
2	Rodriguez,Alex	0.281	0.375	0.526	0.390
3	Teixeira,Mark	0.280	0.367	0.505	0.376
4	Granderson,Curtis	0.256	0.335	0.473	0.351
5	Jeter,Derek	0.303	0.369	0.424	0.355
6	Cano,Robinson	0.296	0.334	0.474	0.346
7	Thames,Marcus	0.238	0.302	0.474	0.329
8	Posada,Jorge	0.256	0.338	0.430	0.338
9	Swisher,Nick	0.243	0.354	0.446	0.351

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Boston Red Sox

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 918

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Ellsbury,Jacoby	0.290	0.342	0.398	0.341
2	Pedroia,Dustin	0.306	0.372	0.451	0.365
3	Martinez,Victor	0.297	0.371	0.470	0.367
4	Youkilis,Kevin	0.282	0.377	0.491	0.377
5	Ortiz,David	0.260	0.369	0.507	0.377
6	Drew,J.D.	0.264	0.382	0.459	0.370
7	Beltre,Adrian	0.276	0.326	0.454	0.339
8	Cameron,Mike	0.252	0.339	0.442	0.343
9	Scutaro,Marco	0.297	0.379	0.420	0.358

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 925

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Scutaro,Marco	0.297	0.379	0.420	0.358
2	Drew,J.D.	0.264	0.382	0.459	0.370
3	Ortiz,David	0.260	0.369	0.507	0.377
4	Youkilis,Kevin	0.282	0.377	0.491	0.377
5	Pedroia,Dustin	0.306	0.372	0.451	0.365
6	Martinez,Victor	0.297	0.371	0.470	0.367
7	Cameron,Mike	0.252	0.339	0.442	0.343
8	Beltre,Adrian	0.276	0.326	0.454	0.339
9	Ellsbury,Jacoby	0.290	0.342	0.398	0.341

Optimized Lineup with Lowell and Hermida

Expected Runs/Season: 933

(這也是ZiPS認定最佳的九名打者. Beltre的OPS和wOBA比Hermida好, 但是這種打線上Hermida可以製造更多的分數.)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Scutaro,Marco	0.297	0.379	0.420	0.358
2	Drew,J.D.	0.264	0.382	0.459	0.370
3	Ortiz,David	0.260	0.369	0.507	0.377
4	Youkilis,Kevin	0.282	0.377	0.491	0.377
5	Pedroia,Dustin	0.306	0.372	0.451	0.365
6	Martinez,Victor	0.297	0.371	0.470	0.367
7	Lowell,Mike	0.282	0.341	0.453	0.345
8	Hermida,Jeremy	0.263	0.340	0.429	0.338
9	Cameron,Mike	0.252	0.339	0.442	0.343

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Baltimore Orioles

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 813

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Roberts,Brian	0.283	0.366	0.433	0.360
2	Jones,Adam	0.278	0.334	0.479	0.349
3	Markakis,Nick	0.295	0.369	0.479	0.369
4	Tejada,Miguel	0.297	0.333	0.433	0.334
5	Scott,Luke	0.255	0.343	0.475	0.353
6	Atkins,Garrett	0.267	0.340	0.428	0.337
7	Wieters,Matt	0.282	0.352	0.427	0.343
8	Reimold,Nolan	0.273	0.345	0.440	0.344
9	Izturis,Cesar	0.259	0.303	0.321	0.283

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 816

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Roberts,Brian	0.283	0.366	0.433	0.360
2	Wieters,Matt	0.282	0.352	0.427	0.343
3	Scott,Luke	0.255	0.343	0.475	0.353
4	Markakis,Nick	0.295	0.369	0.479	0.369
5	Reimold,Nolan	0.273	0.345	0.440	0.344
6	Atkins,Garrett	0.267	0.340	0.428	0.337
7	Jones,Adam	0.278	0.334	0.479	0.349
8	Tejada,Miguel	0.297	0.333	0.433	0.334
9	Izturis,Cesar	0.259	0.303	0.321	0.283

Optimized Lineup with Wigginton

Expected Runs/Season: 848

(這是ZiPS預測金鶯陣中最好的九名打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Roberts,Brian	0.283	0.366	0.433	0.360
2	Markakis,Nick	0.295	0.369	0.479	0.369
3	Scott,Luke	0.255	0.343	0.475	0.353
4	Jones,Adam	0.278	0.334	0.479	0.349
5	Wieters,Matt	0.282	0.352	0.427	0.343
6	Reimold,Nolan	0.273	0.345	0.440	0.344
7	Wigginton,Ty	0.280	0.331	0.461	0.340
8	Tejada,Miguel	0.297	0.333	0.433	0.334
9	Atkins,Garrett	0.267	0.340	0.428	0.337

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Minnesota Twins

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 860

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Span,Denard	0.290	0.364	0.392	0.340
2	Hudson,Orlando	0.275	0.349	0.410	0.337
3	Mauer,Joe	0.336	0.423	0.525	0.413
4	Morneau,Justin	0.286	0.371	0.512	0.380
5	Cuddyer,Michael	0.275	0.347	0.475	0.357
6	Kubel,Jason	0.278	0.354	0.484	0.362
7	Young,Delmon	0.286	0.326	0.426	0.328
8	Hardy,J.J.	0.258	0.318	0.419	0.322
9	Punto,Nick	0.251	0.338	0.331	0.311

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 871

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Mauer,Joe	0.336	0.423	0.525	0.413
2	Morneau,Justin	0.286	0.371	0.512	0.380
3	Kubel,Jason	0.278	0.354	0.484	0.362
4	Cuddyer,Michael	0.275	0.347	0.475	0.357
5	Hudson,Orlando	0.275	0.349	0.410	0.337
6	Young,Delmon	0.286	0.326	0.426	0.328
7	Hardy,J.J.	0.258	0.318	0.419	0.322
8	Punto,Nick	0.251	0.338	0.331	0.311
9	Span,Denard	0.290	0.364	0.392	0.340

Optimized Lineup with Thome and Harris

Expected Runs/Season: 886

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Mauer,Joe	0.336	0.423	0.525	0.413
2	Morneau,Justin	0.286	0.371	0.512	0.380
3	Kubel,Jason	0.278	0.354	0.484	0.362
4	Cuddyer,Michael	0.275	0.347	0.475	0.357
5	Hardy,J.J.	0.258	0.318	0.419	0.322
6	Thome,Jim	0.231	0.341	0.432	0.340
7	Harris,Brendan	0.267	0.328	0.394	0.319
8	Hudson,Orlando	0.275	0.349	0.410	0.337
9	Span,Denard	0.290	0.364	0.392	0.340

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Kansas City Royals

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 721

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	DeJesus,David	0.285	0.352	0.435	0.343
2	Podsednik,Scott	0.279	0.336	0.384	0.324
3	Butler,Billy	0.293	0.359	0.475	0.362
4	Ankiel,Rick	0.255	0.314	0.456	0.331
5	Guillen,Jose	0.265	0.312	0.431	0.323
6	Gordon,Alex	0.248	0.328	0.415	0.329
7	Betancourt,Yuniesky	0.271	0.303	0.390	0.302
8	Kendall,Jason	0.252	0.317	0.319	0.290
9	Getz,Chris	0.283	0.339	0.370	0.323

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 723

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Butler,Billy	0.293	0.359	0.475	0.362
2	Gordon,Alex	0.248	0.328	0.415	0.329
3	Ankiel,Rick	0.255	0.314	0.456	0.331
4	DeJesus,David	0.285	0.352	0.435	0.343
5	Podsednik,Scott	0.279	0.336	0.384	0.324
6	Getz,Chris	0.283	0.339	0.370	0.323
7	Guillen,Jose	0.265	0.312	0.431	0.323
8	Betancourt,Yuniesky	0.271	0.303	0.390	0.302
9	Kendall,Jason	0.252	0.317	0.319	0.290

Optimized Lineup with Callapso, Ka'aihue, Pena, and Aviles

Expected Runs/Season: 770

(換掉的人快比沒換掉的多了. Getz的預測成績比Aviles好, 但我想他和Callapso都不適合守SS)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Kaaihue,Kila	0.255	0.352	0.403	0.337
2	Butler,Billy	0.293	0.359	0.475	0.362
3	Ankiel,Rick	0.255	0.314	0.456	0.331
4	DeJesus,David	0.285	0.352	0.435	0.343
5	Callaspo,Alberto	0.290	0.350	0.416	0.338
6	Gordon,Alex	0.248	0.328	0.415	0.329
7	Pena,Brayan	0.281	0.328	0.413	0.323
8	Guillen,Jose	0.265	0.312	0.431	0.323
9	Aviles,Mike	0.275	0.310	0.403	0.313

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Detroit Tigers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 722

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jackson,Austin	0.247	0.300	0.341	0.290
2	Damon,Johnny	0.272	0.353	0.436	0.352
3	Ordonez,Magglio	0.300	0.368	0.459	0.362
4	Cabrera,Miguel	0.305	0.378	0.536	0.392
5	Guillen,Carlos	0.276	0.357	0.464	0.358
6	Inge,Brandon	0.226	0.299	0.390	0.302
7	Laird,Gerald	0.235	0.295	0.346	0.287
8	Sizemore,Scott	0.253	0.315	0.370	0.306
9	Everett,Adam	0.231	0.285	0.324	0.273

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 726

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Damon,Johnny	0.272	0.353	0.436	0.352
2	Ordonez,Magglio	0.300	0.368	0.459	0.362
3	Guillen,Carlos	0.276	0.357	0.464	0.358
4	Cabrera,Miguel	0.305	0.378	0.536	0.392
5	Sizemore,Scott	0.253	0.315	0.370	0.306
6	Inge,Brandon	0.226	0.299	0.390	0.302
7	Laird,Gerald	0.235	0.295	0.346	0.287
8	Everett,Adam	0.231	0.285	0.324	0.273
9	Jackson,Austin	0.247	0.300	0.341	0.290

Optimized Lineup with Raburn, Avila, and Santiago

Expected Runs/Season: 786

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Damon,Johnny	0.272	0.353	0.436	0.352
2	Ordonez,Magglio	0.300	0.368	0.459	0.362
3	Guillen,Carlos	0.276	0.357	0.464	0.358
4	Cabrera,Miguel	0.305	0.378	0.536	0.392
5	Raburn,Ryan	0.266	0.334	0.470	0.347
6	Santiago,Ramon	0.257	0.310	0.374	0.301
7	Inge,Brandon	0.226	0.299	0.390	0.302
8	Avila,Alex	0.239	0.314	0.372	0.305
9	Sizemore,Scott	0.253	0.315	0.370	0.306

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Cleveland Indians

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 802

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Cabrera,Asdrubal	0.281	0.345	0.406	0.335
2	Sizemore,Grady	0.264	0.363	0.482	0.369
3	Choo,Shin-Soo	0.286	0.371	0.466	0.368
4	Hafner,Travis	0.257	0.363	0.448	0.356
5	Peralta,Jhonny	0.265	0.329	0.420	0.328
6	Branyan,Russell	0.227	0.327	0.463	0.342
7	LaPorta,Matt	0.265	0.330	0.443	0.336
8	Marson,Lou	0.247	0.339	0.325	0.306
9	Valbuena,Luis	0.256	0.325	0.384	0.314

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 805

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Choo,Shin-Soo	0.286	0.371	0.466	0.368
2	Hafner,Travis	0.257	0.363	0.448	0.356
3	Branyan,Russell	0.227	0.327	0.463	0.342
4	Sizemore,Grady	0.264	0.363	0.482	0.369
5	Cabrera,Asdrubal	0.281	0.345	0.406	0.335
6	LaPorta,Matt	0.265	0.330	0.443	0.336
7	Peralta,Jhonny	0.265	0.329	0.420	0.328
8	Valbuena,Luis	0.256	0.325	0.384	0.314
9	Marson,Lou	0.247	0.339	0.325	0.306

Optimized Lineup with Santana

Expected Runs/Season: 830

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Santana,Carlos	0.250	0.355	0.429	0.345
2	Hafner,Travis	0.257	0.363	0.448	0.356
3	Branyan,Russell	0.227	0.327	0.463	0.342
4	Sizemore,Grady	0.264	0.363	0.482	0.369
5	Choo,Shin-Soo	0.286	0.371	0.466	0.368
6	Cabrera,Asdrubal	0.281	0.345	0.406	0.335
7	LaPorta,Matt	0.265	0.330	0.443	0.336
8	Peralta,Jhonny	0.265	0.329	0.420	0.328
9	Valbuena,Luis	0.256	0.325	0.384	0.314

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 760

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Pierre,Juan	0.288	0.335	0.357	0.318
2	Beckham,Gordon	0.267	0.331	0.450	0.340
3	Quentin,Carlos	0.261	0.332	0.459	0.344
4	Konerko,Paul	0.269	0.348	0.465	0.354
5	Jones,Andruw	0.212	0.308	0.416	0.318
6	Rios,Alexis	0.275	0.328	0.442	0.338
7	Pierzynski,A.J.	0.285	0.321	0.417	0.322
8	Teahen,Mark	0.259	0.325	0.426	0.329
9	Ramirez,Alexei	0.288	0.338	0.427	0.336

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 765

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Konerko,Paul	0.269	0.348	0.465	0.354
2	Teahen,Mark	0.259	0.325	0.426	0.329
3	Quentin,Carlos	0.261	0.332	0.459	0.344
4	Beckham,Gordon	0.267	0.331	0.450	0.340
5	Ramirez,Alexei	0.288	0.338	0.427	0.336
6	Rios,Alexis	0.275	0.328	0.442	0.338
7	Pierre,Juan	0.288	0.335	0.357	0.318
8	Pierzynski,A.J.	0.285	0.321	0.417	0.322
9	Jones,Andruw	0.212	0.308	0.416	0.318

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Texas Rangers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 829

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Borbon,Julio	0.283	0.328	0.366	0.317
2	Young,Michael	0.301	0.356	0.445	0.353
3	Hamilton,Josh	0.283	0.347	0.488	0.361
4	Guerrero,Vladimir	0.304	0.366	0.509	0.377
5	Kinsler,Ian	0.274	0.346	0.486	0.366
6	Cruz,Nelson	0.270	0.342	0.512	0.367
7	Davis,Chris	0.251	0.303	0.475	0.331
8	Saltalamacchia,Jarrod	0.248	0.316	0.396	0.312
9	Andrus,Elvis	0.270	0.333	0.387	0.329

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 833

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Young,Michael	0.301	0.356	0.445	0.353
2	Guerrero,Vladimir	0.304	0.366	0.509	0.377
3	Cruz,Nelson	0.270	0.342	0.512	0.367
4	Kinsler,Ian	0.274	0.346	0.486	0.366
5	Hamilton,Josh	0.283	0.347	0.488	0.361
6	Davis,Chris	0.251	0.303	0.475	0.331
7	Saltalamacchia,Jarrod	0.248	0.316	0.396	0.312
8	Andrus,Elvis	0.270	0.333	0.387	0.329
9	Borbon,Julio	0.283	0.328	0.366	0.317

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Seattle Mariners

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 718

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Suzuki,Ichiro	0.325	0.369	0.414	0.353
2	Figgins,Chone	0.280	0.377	0.362	0.343
3	Kotchman,Casey	0.271	0.340	0.406	0.330
4	Bradley,Milton	0.254	0.367	0.421	0.351
5	Griffey Jr. ,Ken	0.214	0.324	0.372	0.312
6	Lopez,Jose	0.275	0.310	0.430	0.320
7	Gutierrez,Franklin	0.266	0.324	0.408	0.323
8	Wilson,Jack	0.251	0.300	0.345	0.287
9	Johnson,Rob	0.266	0.318	0.356	0.300

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 722

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bradley,Milton	0.254	0.367	0.421	0.351
2	Figgins,Chone	0.280	0.377	0.362	0.343
3	Suzuki,Ichiro	0.325	0.369	0.414	0.353
4	Kotchman,Casey	0.271	0.340	0.406	0.330
5	Lopez,Jose	0.275	0.310	0.430	0.320
6	Gutierrez,Franklin	0.266	0.324	0.408	0.323
7	Wilson,Jack	0.251	0.300	0.345	0.287
8	Johnson,Rob	0.266	0.318	0.356	0.300
9	Griffey Jr. ,Ken	0.214	0.324	0.372	0.312

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Oakland Athletics

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 729

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Crisp,Coco	0.248	0.324	0.370	0.317
2	Davis,Rajai	0.286	0.340	0.395	0.334
3	Sweeney,Ryan	0.291	0.352	0.415	0.339
4	Kouzmanoff,Kevin	0.264	0.304	0.448	0.323
5	Suzuki,Kurt	0.277	0.331	0.404	0.325
6	Chavez,Eric	0.242	0.319	0.427	0.326
7	Ellis,Mark	0.268	0.327	0.411	0.326
8	Barton,Daric	0.268	0.361	0.425	0.347
9	Pennington,Cliff	0.258	0.333	0.350	0.312

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 733

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Barton,Daric	0.268	0.361	0.425	0.347
2	Sweeney,Ryan	0.291	0.352	0.415	0.339
3	Chavez,Eric	0.242	0.319	0.427	0.326
4	Ellis,Mark	0.268	0.327	0.411	0.326
5	Davis,Rajai	0.286	0.340	0.395	0.334
6	Suzuki,Kurt	0.277	0.331	0.404	0.325
7	Kouzmanoff,Kevin	0.264	0.304	0.448	0.323
8	Crisp,Coco	0.248	0.324	0.370	0.317
9	Pennington,Cliff	0.258	0.333	0.350	0.312

Optimized Lineup with Cust, Buck

Expected Runs/Season: 758

(Cust是ZiPS預測A's最好的打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Cust,Jack	0.240	0.377	0.428	0.359
2	Barton,Daric	0.268	0.361	0.425	0.347
3	Ellis,Mark	0.268	0.327	0.411	0.326
4	Sweeney,Ryan	0.291	0.352	0.415	0.339
5	Davis,Rajai	0.286	0.340	0.395	0.334
6	Suzuki,Kurt	0.277	0.331	0.404	0.325
7	Kouzmanoff,Kevin	0.264	0.304	0.448	0.323
8	Buck,Travis	0.257	0.325	0.397	0.320
9	Pennington,Cliff	0.258	0.333	0.350	0.312

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Los Angeles Angels

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 833

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Aybar,Erick	0.289	0.331	0.406	0.325
2	Abreu,Bobby	0.283	0.378	0.436	0.365
3	Hunter,Torii	0.288	0.350	0.489	0.363
4	Matsui,Hideki	0.281	0.361	0.462	0.359
5	Morales,Kendry	0.287	0.336	0.485	0.351
6	Rivera,Juan	0.281	0.330	0.460	0.340
7	Kendrick,Howie	0.294	0.331	0.437	0.335
8	Napoli,Mike	0.260	0.350	0.488	0.361
9	Wood,Brandon	0.244	0.301	0.422	0.314

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 838

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Abreu,Bobby	0.283	0.378	0.436	0.365
2	Matsui,Hideki	0.281	0.361	0.462	0.359
3	Napoli,Mike	0.260	0.350	0.488	0.361
4	Hunter,Torii	0.288	0.350	0.489	0.363
5	Morales,Kendry	0.287	0.336	0.485	0.351
6	Kendrick,Howie	0.294	0.331	0.437	0.335
7	Rivera,Juan	0.281	0.330	0.460	0.340
8	Wood,Brandon	0.244	0.301	0.422	0.314
9	Aybar,Erick	0.289	0.331	0.406	0.325

Optimized Lineup with Izturis

Expected Runs/Season: 854

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Abreu,Bobby	0.283	0.378	0.436	0.365
2	Matsui,Hideki	0.281	0.361	0.462	0.359
3	Napoli,Mike	0.260	0.350	0.488	0.361
4	Hunter,Torii	0.288	0.350	0.489	0.363
5	Morales,Kendry	0.287	0.336	0.485	0.351
6	Izturis,Maicer	0.285	0.351	0.411	0.340
7	Rivera,Juan	0.281	0.330	0.460	0.340
8	Kendrick,Howie	0.294	0.331	0.437	0.335
9	Aybar,Erick	0.289	0.331	0.406	0.325

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Washington Nationals

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 689

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Morgan,Nyjer	0.281	0.333	0.359	0.316
2	Harris,Willie	0.249	0.342	0.397	0.331
3	Zimmerman,Ryan	0.285	0.357	0.501	0.369
4	Dunn,Adam	0.256	0.389	0.512	0.390
5	Willingham,Josh	0.264	0.351	0.491	0.363
6	Kennedy,Adam	0.274	0.330	0.382	0.318
7	Rodriguez,Ivan	0.254	0.288	0.374	0.290
8	Desmond,Ian	0.270	0.332	0.388	0.323
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 696

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Desmond,Ian	0.270	0.332	0.388	0.323
2	Dunn,Adam	0.256	0.389	0.512	0.390
3	Willingham,Josh	0.264	0.351	0.491	0.363
4	Zimmerman,Ryan	0.285	0.357	0.501	0.369
5	Harris,Willie	0.249	0.342	0.397	0.331
6	Morgan,Nyjer	0.281	0.333	0.359	0.316
7	Kennedy,Adam	0.274	0.330	0.382	0.318
8	Rodriguez,Ivan	0.254	0.288	0.374	0.290
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Dukes

Expected Runs/Season: 702

(其實照ZiPS的預測, 把Morgan換下去可以打下713分, 當然打下最多分的陣容不見得是最佳陣容, Morgan的防守很可能可以比Dukes省下10分以上)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Desmond,Ian	0.270	0.332	0.388	0.323
2	Dunn,Adam	0.256	0.389	0.512	0.390
3	Willingham,Josh	0.264	0.351	0.491	0.363
4	Zimmerman,Ryan	0.285	0.357	0.501	0.369
5	Dukes,Elijah	0.254	0.350	0.432	0.341
6	Morgan,Nyjer	0.281	0.333	0.359	0.316
7	Kennedy,Adam	0.274	0.330	0.382	0.318
8	Rodriguez,Ivan	0.254	0.288	0.374	0.290
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 820

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Rollins,Jimmy	0.274	0.331	0.448	0.346
2	Polanco,Placido	0.302	0.344	0.421	0.337
3	Utley,Chase	0.301	0.383	0.528	0.396
4	Howard,Ryan	0.273	0.369	0.572	0.397
5	Werth,Jayson	0.272	0.369	0.495	0.378
6	Ibanez,Raul	0.289	0.360	0.531	0.380
7	Victorino,Shane	0.290	0.351	0.442	0.351
8	Ruiz,Carlos	0.251	0.340	0.391	0.326
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 827

(又一個很詭異的陣容)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Ruiz,Carlos	0.251	0.340	0.391	0.326
2	Werth,Jayson	0.272	0.369	0.495	0.378
3	Howard,Ryan	0.273	0.369	0.572	0.397
4	Utley,Chase	0.301	0.383	0.528	0.396
5	Ibanez,Raul	0.289	0.360	0.531	0.380
6	Victorino,Shane	0.290	0.351	0.442	0.351
7	Rollins,Jimmy	0.274	0.331	0.448	0.346
8	Polanco,Placido	0.302	0.344	0.421	0.337
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 New York Mets

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 766

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Reyes,Jose	0.294	0.365	0.455	0.369
2	Castillo,Luis	0.290	0.372	0.349	0.335
3	Wright,David	0.307	0.400	0.507	0.398
4	Beltran,Carlos	0.294	0.386	0.514	0.394
5	Bay,Jason	0.270	0.366	0.523	0.382
6	Murphy,Daniel	0.274	0.331	0.408	0.325
7	Francoeur,Jeff	0.269	0.310	0.425	0.318
8	Barajas,Rod	0.229	0.279	0.382	0.288
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 770

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Castillo,Luis	0.290	0.372	0.349	0.335
2	Wright,David	0.307	0.400	0.507	0.398
3	Bay,Jason	0.270	0.366	0.523	0.382
4	Beltran,Carlos	0.294	0.386	0.514	0.394
5	Reyes,Jose	0.294	0.365	0.455	0.369
6	Murphy,Daniel	0.274	0.331	0.408	0.325
7	Francoeur,Jeff	0.269	0.310	0.425	0.318
8	Barajas,Rod	0.229	0.279	0.382	0.288
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup without Beltran, Reyes

Expected Runs/Season: 696

(這就是Mets今年可能打不到700分的原因)

(註:ZiPS預測Jacobs和Tatis打得比Murphy好)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Castillo,Luis	0.290	0.372	0.349	0.335
2	Wright,David	0.307	0.400	0.507	0.398
3	Bay,Jason	0.270	0.366	0.523	0.382
4	Pagan,Angel	0.285	0.342	0.446	0.346
5	Murphy,Daniel	0.274	0.331	0.408	0.325
6	Francoeur,Jeff	0.269	0.310	0.425	0.318
7	Barajas,Rod	0.229	0.279	0.382	0.288
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Cora,Alex	0.251	0.311	0.336	0.292

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Florida Marlins

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 708

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Coghlan,Chris	0.287	0.356	0.413	0.344
2	Maybin,Cameron	0.243	0.324	0.354	0.307
3	Ramirez,Hanley	0.320	0.392	0.537	0.405
4	Cantu,Jorge	0.271	0.326	0.434	0.331
5	Uggla,Dan	0.246	0.340	0.462	0.348
6	Ross,Cody	0.262	0.318	0.473	0.340
7	Baker,John	0.255	0.335	0.388	0.322
8	Sanchez,Gaby	0.272	0.346	0.416	0.337
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 713

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Baker,John	0.255	0.335	0.388	0.322
2	Uggla,Dan	0.246	0.340	0.462	0.348
3	Sanchez,Gaby	0.272	0.346	0.416	0.337
4	Ramirez,Hanley	0.320	0.392	0.537	0.405
5	Coghlan,Chris	0.287	0.356	0.413	0.344
6	Cantu,Jorge	0.271	0.326	0.434	0.331
7	Ross,Cody	0.262	0.318	0.473	0.340
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Maybin,Cameron	0.243	0.324	0.354	0.307

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Atlanta Braves

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 791

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	McLouth,Nate	0.268	0.349	0.467	0.358
2	Prado,Martin	0.300	0.354	0.439	0.347
3	Jones,Chipper	0.295	0.408	0.465	0.387
4	Glaus,Troy	0.252	0.361	0.441	0.354
5	McCann,Brian	0.288	0.355	0.497	0.367
6	Escobar,Yunel	0.294	0.362	0.416	0.345
7	Heyward,Jason	0.275	0.344	0.429	0.341
8	Diaz,Matt	0.307	0.355	0.463	0.358
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 796

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jones,Chipper	0.295	0.408	0.465	0.387
2	Glaus,Troy	0.252	0.361	0.441	0.354
3	Escobar,Yunel	0.294	0.362	0.416	0.345
4	McCann,Brian	0.288	0.355	0.497	0.367
5	Prado,Martin	0.300	0.354	0.439	0.347
6	Diaz,Matt	0.307	0.355	0.463	0.358
7	McLouth,Nate	0.268	0.349	0.467	0.358
8	Heyward,Jason	0.275	0.344	0.429	0.341
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Braves的先發八人也就是ZiPS預測隊上最能打的前八名

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 St. Louis Cardinals

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 792

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Schumaker,Skip	0.299	0.358	0.404	0.339
2	Rasmus,Colby	0.260	0.327	0.411	0.327
3	Pujols,Albert	0.333	0.443	0.635	0.455
4	Holliday,Matt	0.308	0.384	0.528	0.394
5	Ludwick,Ryan	0.282	0.346	0.511	0.366
6	Molina,Yadier	0.289	0.352	0.389	0.331
7	Freese,David	0.265	0.326	0.429	0.330
8	Ryan,Brendan	0.274	0.325	0.372	0.312
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 795

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Molina,Yadier	0.289	0.352	0.389	0.331
2	Schumaker,Skip	0.299	0.358	0.404	0.339
3	Pujols,Albert	0.333	0.443	0.635	0.455
4	Holliday,Matt	0.308	0.384	0.528	0.394
5	Ludwick,Ryan	0.282	0.346	0.511	0.366
6	Rasmus,Colby	0.260	0.327	0.411	0.327
7	Freese,David	0.265	0.326	0.429	0.330
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Ryan,Brendan	0.274	0.325	0.372	0.312

Optimized Lineup with Felipe Lopez

Expected Runs/Season: 802

(ZiPS預測Allen Criag有279/330/434, 是比Freese好, 但是他還沒有大聯盟經驗, 所以不考慮他的預測成績)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Schumaker,Skip	0.299	0.358	0.404	0.339
2	Pujols,Albert	0.333	0.443	0.635	0.455
3	Holliday,Matt	0.308	0.384	0.528	0.394
4	Molina,Yadier	0.289	0.352	0.389	0.331
5	Ludwick,Ryan	0.282	0.346	0.511	0.366
6	Rasmus,Colby	0.260	0.327	0.411	0.327
7	Freese,David	0.265	0.326	0.429	0.330
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Lopez,Felipe	0.266	0.342	0.377	0.322

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 683

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Iwamura,Akinori	0.286	0.359	0.400	0.339
2	McCutchen,Andrew	0.281	0.356	0.446	0.354
3	Jones,Garrett	0.285	0.344	0.494	0.361
4	Doumit,Ryan	0.276	0.327	0.452	0.338
5	Milledge,Lastings	0.272	0.322	0.398	0.319
6	Clement,Jeff	0.266	0.337	0.461	0.345
7	LaRoche,Andy	0.260	0.343	0.399	0.330
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Cedeno,Ronny	0.252	0.301	0.386	0.302

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 689

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	LaRoche,Andy	0.260	0.343	0.399	0.330
2	Iwamura,Akinori	0.286	0.359	0.400	0.339
3	Clement,Jeff	0.266	0.337	0.461	0.345
4	Jones,Garrett	0.285	0.344	0.494	0.361
5	McCutchen,Andrew	0.281	0.356	0.446	0.354
6	Doumit,Ryan	0.276	0.327	0.452	0.338
7	Milledge,Lastings	0.272	0.322	0.398	0.319
8	Cedeno,Ronny	0.252	0.301	0.386	0.302
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Church

Expected Runs/Season: 703

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	LaRoche,Andy	0.260	0.343	0.399	0.330
2	Iwamura,Akinori	0.286	0.359	0.400	0.339
3	Church,Ryan	0.278	0.346	0.439	0.344
4	Jones,Garrett	0.285	0.344	0.494	0.361
5	McCutchen,Andrew	0.281	0.356	0.446	0.354
6	Clement,Jeff	0.266	0.337	0.461	0.345
7	Doumit,Ryan	0.276	0.327	0.452	0.338
8	Cedeno,Ronny	0.252	0.301	0.386	0.302
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Milwaukee Brewers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 698

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Weeks,Rickie	0.240	0.332	0.419	0.333
2	Escobar,Alcides	0.279	0.322	0.378	0.315
3	Braun,Ryan	0.295	0.356	0.554	0.386
4	Fielder,Prince	0.277	0.380	0.552	0.397
5	McGehee,Casey	0.263	0.322	0.397	0.316
6	Hart,Corey	0.263	0.321	0.453	0.334
7	Zaun,Gregg	0.243	0.346	0.373	0.325
8	Gomez,Carlos	0.250	0.304	0.369	0.302
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 706

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Zaun,Gregg	0.243	0.346	0.373	0.325
2	Fielder,Prince	0.277	0.380	0.552	0.397
3	Weeks,Rickie	0.240	0.332	0.419	0.333
4	Braun,Ryan	0.295	0.356	0.554	0.386
5	Hart,Corey	0.263	0.321	0.453	0.334
6	Escobar,Alcides	0.279	0.322	0.378	0.315
7	Gomez,Carlos	0.250	0.304	0.369	0.302
8	McGehee,Casey	0.263	0.322	0.397	0.316
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Gerut

Expected Runs/Season: 726

(不太確定Edmonds還能不能守CF, 不過ZiPS認為他是比Hart和Gerut都差的打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Zaun,Gregg	0.243	0.346	0.373	0.325
2	Fielder,Prince	0.277	0.380	0.552	0.397
3	Weeks,Rickie	0.240	0.332	0.419	0.333
4	Braun,Ryan	0.295	0.356	0.554	0.386
5	Gerut,Jody	0.267	0.326	0.443	0.334
6	Escobar,Alcides	0.279	0.322	0.378	0.315
7	Hart,Corey	0.263	0.321	0.453	0.334
8	McGehee,Casey	0.263	0.322	0.397	0.316
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Houston Astros

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 662

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
3	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
6	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
7	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
8	Manzella,Thomas	0.247	0.297	0.346	0.286
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 663

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
3	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
6	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
7	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
8	Manzella,Thomas	0.247	0.297	0.346	0.286
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Keppinger

Expected Runs/Season: 682

(用Sullivan取代Bourn並不會打下更多分數)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Keppinger,Jeff	0.279	0.336	0.385	0.319
3	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
6	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
7	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
8	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Cincinnati Reds

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 681

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Stubbs,Drew	0.235	0.307	0.348	0.297
2	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
3	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
4	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
5	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
6	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
7	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
8	Hernandez,Ramon	0.255	0.323	0.385	0.314
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 685

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
2	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
3	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
4	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
5	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
6	Hernandez,Ramon	0.255	0.323	0.385	0.314
7	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Stubbs,Drew	0.235	0.307	0.348	0.297

Optimized Lineup with Dickerson, Hanigan

Expected Runs/Season: 706

(ZiPS相當看衰Stubbs)

(這打線不管從傳統角度或stathead角度都相當地詭異)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Hanigan,Ryan	0.267	0.343	0.357	0.317
2	Dickerson,Chris	0.247	0.337	0.394	0.330
3	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
4	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
5	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
6	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
7	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
8	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 767

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
2	Fukudome,Kosuke	0.259	0.366	0.412	0.346
3	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
6	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
7	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
8	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 768

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Fukudome,Kosuke	0.259	0.366	0.412	0.346
2	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
3	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
6	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
7	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
8	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Xavier Nady

Expected Runs/Season: 768

(事實上比使用Fukudome還低一點. 如果讓Fukudome和Nady一起先發, Byrd坐板凳, 一樣是768分)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
2	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
3	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
6	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
7	Nady,Xavier	0.288	0.332	0.473	0.346
8	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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