2009 Forecast Evaluations

今天突然心血來潮逛到很久沒看的FB Blog: Last Player Picked, 發現多了很多新文章. LPP的FB文章都很不錯, 理路正確, 邏輯清楚, 而且寫得不難懂. 有時間再來寫一些文章的心得.

不過首先要講的是上面提到的另一個網站Steamer整理的2009各家預測打擊成績比較.

在這篇文章中,Steamer以FB的觀點比較了八個預測成績: Steamer自身, Marcel, PECOTA, Chone, ZiPS, SportingNews, Fantistics和2008年成績.

結論是: Chone和ZiPS在所有比率數據( (R+RBI)/PA, HR/AB, SB/PA, OPS)上都位居前兩名, Chone略勝一點, 但兩者的預測成績極為接近.

Fantistics和SportingNews兩個人工預測差不多在所有比率數據都輸給公式型預測, 當然還是比直接複製2008年成績好一些. 不過Fantistics在PA的預測遙遙領先, 連帶著在SGPs(FB Value)上也取得了顯著的勝利.

當然Fantistics有點勝之不武, 因為Chone, ZiPS和PECOTA沒有真的去預測打者的PA, Marcel的PA預測也很簡單. 而打者的FB Value和打席數又高度相關, 所以Fantistics可靠著打席準確度的大幅領先在FB Value預測稱王.

不過我們從這裡得到的收穫是: 公式預測在比率數據上的表現明顯比專家預測好, 但預測打席數差距太大所以不實用. 我們可以兼取兩家之長, 以專家預測的打席數, 乘上公式預測中最佳的Chone或ZiPS(或兩者平均, 反正兩個數據差不多)的比率數據, 簡單地得到更佳的預測.

Steamer上也有投手的預測成績比較, 不過我覺得比較的方法沒有打者這篇好.

同樣的是, 公式預測在比率數據上的表現仍然比兩個專家預測好, ZiPS在ERA和WHIP上大幅領先, 但是K/9的表現不好. Fantistics仍是在IP上穩居第一, 並靠此奪下SGPs的冠軍. 我們也可以用同樣的方法組合兩種預測來提高準確度.

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Evaluate Lineups - 2010 Rankings

預測先發打線得分總排名

NL

Tier 1

#1 Philadelphia Phillies : 820

Tier 2

#2 St. Louis Cardinals : 792

#3 Atlanta Braves : 791

#4 Arizona Diamondbacks : 781

#5 Los Angeles Dodgers : 777

Tier 3

#6 Chicago Cubs : 767

#7 New York Mets : 766

#8 Colorado Rockies : 750

Tier 4

#9 Florida Marlins : 708

#10 Milwaukee Brewers : 698

#11 Washington Nationals : 689

#12 San Francisco Giants : 688

#13 Pittsburgh Pirates : 683

#14 Cincinnati Reds : 681

Tier 5

#15 Houston Astros : 662

Tier 6

#16 San Diego Padres : 580

AL

Tier 1

#1 Boston Red Sox : 918

#2 New York Yankees : 901

Tier 2

#3 Minnesota Twins : 860

Tier 3

#4 Los Angeles Angels : 833

#5 Texas Rangers : 829

Tier 4

#6 Tampa Bay Rays : 813

#7 Baltimore Orioles : 813

#8 Cleveland Indians : 802

Tier 5

#9 Chicago White Sox : 760

Tier 6

#10 Oakland Athletics : 729

#11 Detroit Tigers : 722

#12 Kansas City Royals : 721

#13 Toronto Blue Jays : 719

#14 Seattle Mariners : 718

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 719

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bautista,Jose	0.227	0.323	0.389	0.317
2	Hill,Aaron	0.275	0.325	0.447	0.335
3	Lind,Adam	0.277	0.341	0.488	0.356
4	Wells,Vernon	0.260	0.319	0.430	0.327
5	Overbay,Lyle	0.251	0.343	0.416	0.335
6	Encarnacion,Edwin	0.233	0.312	0.397	0.312
7	Buck,John	0.221	0.288	0.422	0.305
8	Gonzalez,Sea Bass	0.231	0.277	0.354	0.277
9	Snider,Travis	0.240	0.332	0.452	0.339

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 723

(恐怖的是這已經是藍鳥拿得出來的最佳打線了)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bautista,Jose	0.227	0.323	0.389	0.317
2	Overbay,Lyle	0.251	0.343	0.416	0.335
3	Snider,Travis	0.240	0.332	0.452	0.339
4	Lind,Adam	0.277	0.341	0.488	0.356
5	Hill,Aaron	0.275	0.325	0.447	0.335
6	Wells,Vernon	0.260	0.319	0.430	0.327
7	Encarnacion,Edwin	0.233	0.312	0.397	0.312
8	Buck,John	0.221	0.288	0.422	0.305
9	Gonzalez,Sea Bass	0.231	0.277	0.354	0.277

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 813

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bartlett,Jason	0.286	0.343	0.405	0.335
2	Crawford,Carl	0.293	0.344	0.444	0.353
3	Zobrist,Ben	0.261	0.358	0.443	0.354
4	Longoria,Evan	0.272	0.351	0.525	0.376
5	Pena,Carlos	0.243	0.361	0.524	0.378
6	Upton,B.J.	0.260	0.349	0.410	0.341
7	Burrell,Pat	0.230	0.342	0.415	0.336
8	Shoppach,Kelly	0.219	0.293	0.414	0.307
9	Rodriguez,Sean	0.229	0.300	0.400	0.307

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 819

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Burrell,Pat	0.230	0.342	0.415	0.336
2	Pena,Carlos	0.243	0.361	0.524	0.378
3	Zobrist,Ben	0.261	0.358	0.443	0.354
4	Longoria,Evan	0.272	0.351	0.525	0.376
5	Upton,B.J.	0.260	0.349	0.410	0.341
6	Crawford,Carl	0.293	0.344	0.444	0.353
7	Bartlett,Jason	0.286	0.343	0.405	0.335
8	Rodriguez,Sean	0.229	0.300	0.400	0.307
9	Shoppach,Kelly	0.219	0.293	0.414	0.307

Optimized Lineup with Aybar

Expected Runs/Season: 833

(ZiPS預測: Joe Dillon > Willy Aybar > Matt Joyce > Sean Rodriguez.)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Burrell,Pat	0.230	0.342	0.415	0.336
2	Pena,Carlos	0.243	0.361	0.524	0.378
3	Zobrist,Ben	0.261	0.358	0.443	0.354
4	Longoria,Evan	0.272	0.351	0.525	0.376
5	Upton,B.J.	0.260	0.349	0.410	0.341
6	Crawford,Carl	0.293	0.344	0.444	0.353
7	Bartlett,Jason	0.286	0.343	0.405	0.335
8	Aybar,Willy	0.257	0.331	0.417	0.327
9	Shoppach,Kelly	0.219	0.293	0.414	0.307

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 New York Yankees

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 901

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jeter,Derek	0.303	0.369	0.424	0.355
2	Johnson,Nick	0.275	0.410	0.433	0.378
3	Teixeira,Mark	0.280	0.367	0.505	0.376
4	Rodriguez,Alex	0.281	0.375	0.526	0.390
5	Cano,Robinson	0.296	0.334	0.474	0.346
6	Posada,Jorge	0.256	0.338	0.430	0.338
7	Granderson,Curtis	0.256	0.335	0.473	0.351
8	Swisher,Nick	0.243	0.354	0.446	0.351
9	Gardner,Brett	0.253	0.330	0.344	0.315

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 902

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jeter,Derek	0.303	0.369	0.424	0.355
2	Johnson,Nick	0.275	0.410	0.433	0.378
3	Rodriguez,Alex	0.281	0.375	0.526	0.390
4	Teixeira,Mark	0.280	0.367	0.505	0.376
5	Cano,Robinson	0.296	0.334	0.474	0.346
6	Posada,Jorge	0.256	0.338	0.430	0.338
7	Swisher,Nick	0.243	0.354	0.446	0.351
8	Granderson,Curtis	0.256	0.335	0.473	0.351
9	Gardner,Brett	0.253	0.330	0.344	0.315

Optimized Lineup with Thames

Expected Runs/Season: 913

(ZiPS認定Yankees最好的九名打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Johnson,Nick	0.275	0.410	0.433	0.378
2	Rodriguez,Alex	0.281	0.375	0.526	0.390
3	Teixeira,Mark	0.280	0.367	0.505	0.376
4	Granderson,Curtis	0.256	0.335	0.473	0.351
5	Jeter,Derek	0.303	0.369	0.424	0.355
6	Cano,Robinson	0.296	0.334	0.474	0.346
7	Thames,Marcus	0.238	0.302	0.474	0.329
8	Posada,Jorge	0.256	0.338	0.430	0.338
9	Swisher,Nick	0.243	0.354	0.446	0.351

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Boston Red Sox

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 918

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Ellsbury,Jacoby	0.290	0.342	0.398	0.341
2	Pedroia,Dustin	0.306	0.372	0.451	0.365
3	Martinez,Victor	0.297	0.371	0.470	0.367
4	Youkilis,Kevin	0.282	0.377	0.491	0.377
5	Ortiz,David	0.260	0.369	0.507	0.377
6	Drew,J.D.	0.264	0.382	0.459	0.370
7	Beltre,Adrian	0.276	0.326	0.454	0.339
8	Cameron,Mike	0.252	0.339	0.442	0.343
9	Scutaro,Marco	0.297	0.379	0.420	0.358

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 925

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Scutaro,Marco	0.297	0.379	0.420	0.358
2	Drew,J.D.	0.264	0.382	0.459	0.370
3	Ortiz,David	0.260	0.369	0.507	0.377
4	Youkilis,Kevin	0.282	0.377	0.491	0.377
5	Pedroia,Dustin	0.306	0.372	0.451	0.365
6	Martinez,Victor	0.297	0.371	0.470	0.367
7	Cameron,Mike	0.252	0.339	0.442	0.343
8	Beltre,Adrian	0.276	0.326	0.454	0.339
9	Ellsbury,Jacoby	0.290	0.342	0.398	0.341

Optimized Lineup with Lowell and Hermida

Expected Runs/Season: 933

(這也是ZiPS認定最佳的九名打者. Beltre的OPS和wOBA比Hermida好, 但是這種打線上Hermida可以製造更多的分數.)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Scutaro,Marco	0.297	0.379	0.420	0.358
2	Drew,J.D.	0.264	0.382	0.459	0.370
3	Ortiz,David	0.260	0.369	0.507	0.377
4	Youkilis,Kevin	0.282	0.377	0.491	0.377
5	Pedroia,Dustin	0.306	0.372	0.451	0.365
6	Martinez,Victor	0.297	0.371	0.470	0.367
7	Lowell,Mike	0.282	0.341	0.453	0.345
8	Hermida,Jeremy	0.263	0.340	0.429	0.338
9	Cameron,Mike	0.252	0.339	0.442	0.343

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Baltimore Orioles

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 813

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Roberts,Brian	0.283	0.366	0.433	0.360
2	Jones,Adam	0.278	0.334	0.479	0.349
3	Markakis,Nick	0.295	0.369	0.479	0.369
4	Tejada,Miguel	0.297	0.333	0.433	0.334
5	Scott,Luke	0.255	0.343	0.475	0.353
6	Atkins,Garrett	0.267	0.340	0.428	0.337
7	Wieters,Matt	0.282	0.352	0.427	0.343
8	Reimold,Nolan	0.273	0.345	0.440	0.344
9	Izturis,Cesar	0.259	0.303	0.321	0.283

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 816

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Roberts,Brian	0.283	0.366	0.433	0.360
2	Wieters,Matt	0.282	0.352	0.427	0.343
3	Scott,Luke	0.255	0.343	0.475	0.353
4	Markakis,Nick	0.295	0.369	0.479	0.369
5	Reimold,Nolan	0.273	0.345	0.440	0.344
6	Atkins,Garrett	0.267	0.340	0.428	0.337
7	Jones,Adam	0.278	0.334	0.479	0.349
8	Tejada,Miguel	0.297	0.333	0.433	0.334
9	Izturis,Cesar	0.259	0.303	0.321	0.283

Optimized Lineup with Wigginton

Expected Runs/Season: 848

(這是ZiPS預測金鶯陣中最好的九名打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Roberts,Brian	0.283	0.366	0.433	0.360
2	Markakis,Nick	0.295	0.369	0.479	0.369
3	Scott,Luke	0.255	0.343	0.475	0.353
4	Jones,Adam	0.278	0.334	0.479	0.349
5	Wieters,Matt	0.282	0.352	0.427	0.343
6	Reimold,Nolan	0.273	0.345	0.440	0.344
7	Wigginton,Ty	0.280	0.331	0.461	0.340
8	Tejada,Miguel	0.297	0.333	0.433	0.334
9	Atkins,Garrett	0.267	0.340	0.428	0.337

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Minnesota Twins

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 860

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Span,Denard	0.290	0.364	0.392	0.340
2	Hudson,Orlando	0.275	0.349	0.410	0.337
3	Mauer,Joe	0.336	0.423	0.525	0.413
4	Morneau,Justin	0.286	0.371	0.512	0.380
5	Cuddyer,Michael	0.275	0.347	0.475	0.357
6	Kubel,Jason	0.278	0.354	0.484	0.362
7	Young,Delmon	0.286	0.326	0.426	0.328
8	Hardy,J.J.	0.258	0.318	0.419	0.322
9	Punto,Nick	0.251	0.338	0.331	0.311

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 871

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Mauer,Joe	0.336	0.423	0.525	0.413
2	Morneau,Justin	0.286	0.371	0.512	0.380
3	Kubel,Jason	0.278	0.354	0.484	0.362
4	Cuddyer,Michael	0.275	0.347	0.475	0.357
5	Hudson,Orlando	0.275	0.349	0.410	0.337
6	Young,Delmon	0.286	0.326	0.426	0.328
7	Hardy,J.J.	0.258	0.318	0.419	0.322
8	Punto,Nick	0.251	0.338	0.331	0.311
9	Span,Denard	0.290	0.364	0.392	0.340

Optimized Lineup with Thome and Harris

Expected Runs/Season: 886

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Mauer,Joe	0.336	0.423	0.525	0.413
2	Morneau,Justin	0.286	0.371	0.512	0.380
3	Kubel,Jason	0.278	0.354	0.484	0.362
4	Cuddyer,Michael	0.275	0.347	0.475	0.357
5	Hardy,J.J.	0.258	0.318	0.419	0.322
6	Thome,Jim	0.231	0.341	0.432	0.340
7	Harris,Brendan	0.267	0.328	0.394	0.319
8	Hudson,Orlando	0.275	0.349	0.410	0.337
9	Span,Denard	0.290	0.364	0.392	0.340

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Kansas City Royals

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 721

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	DeJesus,David	0.285	0.352	0.435	0.343
2	Podsednik,Scott	0.279	0.336	0.384	0.324
3	Butler,Billy	0.293	0.359	0.475	0.362
4	Ankiel,Rick	0.255	0.314	0.456	0.331
5	Guillen,Jose	0.265	0.312	0.431	0.323
6	Gordon,Alex	0.248	0.328	0.415	0.329
7	Betancourt,Yuniesky	0.271	0.303	0.390	0.302
8	Kendall,Jason	0.252	0.317	0.319	0.290
9	Getz,Chris	0.283	0.339	0.370	0.323

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 723

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Butler,Billy	0.293	0.359	0.475	0.362
2	Gordon,Alex	0.248	0.328	0.415	0.329
3	Ankiel,Rick	0.255	0.314	0.456	0.331
4	DeJesus,David	0.285	0.352	0.435	0.343
5	Podsednik,Scott	0.279	0.336	0.384	0.324
6	Getz,Chris	0.283	0.339	0.370	0.323
7	Guillen,Jose	0.265	0.312	0.431	0.323
8	Betancourt,Yuniesky	0.271	0.303	0.390	0.302
9	Kendall,Jason	0.252	0.317	0.319	0.290

Optimized Lineup with Callapso, Ka'aihue, Pena, and Aviles

Expected Runs/Season: 770

(換掉的人快比沒換掉的多了. Getz的預測成績比Aviles好, 但我想他和Callapso都不適合守SS)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Kaaihue,Kila	0.255	0.352	0.403	0.337
2	Butler,Billy	0.293	0.359	0.475	0.362
3	Ankiel,Rick	0.255	0.314	0.456	0.331
4	DeJesus,David	0.285	0.352	0.435	0.343
5	Callaspo,Alberto	0.290	0.350	0.416	0.338
6	Gordon,Alex	0.248	0.328	0.415	0.329
7	Pena,Brayan	0.281	0.328	0.413	0.323
8	Guillen,Jose	0.265	0.312	0.431	0.323
9	Aviles,Mike	0.275	0.310	0.403	0.313

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Detroit Tigers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 722

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jackson,Austin	0.247	0.300	0.341	0.290
2	Damon,Johnny	0.272	0.353	0.436	0.352
3	Ordonez,Magglio	0.300	0.368	0.459	0.362
4	Cabrera,Miguel	0.305	0.378	0.536	0.392
5	Guillen,Carlos	0.276	0.357	0.464	0.358
6	Inge,Brandon	0.226	0.299	0.390	0.302
7	Laird,Gerald	0.235	0.295	0.346	0.287
8	Sizemore,Scott	0.253	0.315	0.370	0.306
9	Everett,Adam	0.231	0.285	0.324	0.273

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 726

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Damon,Johnny	0.272	0.353	0.436	0.352
2	Ordonez,Magglio	0.300	0.368	0.459	0.362
3	Guillen,Carlos	0.276	0.357	0.464	0.358
4	Cabrera,Miguel	0.305	0.378	0.536	0.392
5	Sizemore,Scott	0.253	0.315	0.370	0.306
6	Inge,Brandon	0.226	0.299	0.390	0.302
7	Laird,Gerald	0.235	0.295	0.346	0.287
8	Everett,Adam	0.231	0.285	0.324	0.273
9	Jackson,Austin	0.247	0.300	0.341	0.290

Optimized Lineup with Raburn, Avila, and Santiago

Expected Runs/Season: 786

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Damon,Johnny	0.272	0.353	0.436	0.352
2	Ordonez,Magglio	0.300	0.368	0.459	0.362
3	Guillen,Carlos	0.276	0.357	0.464	0.358
4	Cabrera,Miguel	0.305	0.378	0.536	0.392
5	Raburn,Ryan	0.266	0.334	0.470	0.347
6	Santiago,Ramon	0.257	0.310	0.374	0.301
7	Inge,Brandon	0.226	0.299	0.390	0.302
8	Avila,Alex	0.239	0.314	0.372	0.305
9	Sizemore,Scott	0.253	0.315	0.370	0.306

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Cleveland Indians

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 802

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Cabrera,Asdrubal	0.281	0.345	0.406	0.335
2	Sizemore,Grady	0.264	0.363	0.482	0.369
3	Choo,Shin-Soo	0.286	0.371	0.466	0.368
4	Hafner,Travis	0.257	0.363	0.448	0.356
5	Peralta,Jhonny	0.265	0.329	0.420	0.328
6	Branyan,Russell	0.227	0.327	0.463	0.342
7	LaPorta,Matt	0.265	0.330	0.443	0.336
8	Marson,Lou	0.247	0.339	0.325	0.306
9	Valbuena,Luis	0.256	0.325	0.384	0.314

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 805

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Choo,Shin-Soo	0.286	0.371	0.466	0.368
2	Hafner,Travis	0.257	0.363	0.448	0.356
3	Branyan,Russell	0.227	0.327	0.463	0.342
4	Sizemore,Grady	0.264	0.363	0.482	0.369
5	Cabrera,Asdrubal	0.281	0.345	0.406	0.335
6	LaPorta,Matt	0.265	0.330	0.443	0.336
7	Peralta,Jhonny	0.265	0.329	0.420	0.328
8	Valbuena,Luis	0.256	0.325	0.384	0.314
9	Marson,Lou	0.247	0.339	0.325	0.306

Optimized Lineup with Santana

Expected Runs/Season: 830

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Santana,Carlos	0.250	0.355	0.429	0.345
2	Hafner,Travis	0.257	0.363	0.448	0.356
3	Branyan,Russell	0.227	0.327	0.463	0.342
4	Sizemore,Grady	0.264	0.363	0.482	0.369
5	Choo,Shin-Soo	0.286	0.371	0.466	0.368
6	Cabrera,Asdrubal	0.281	0.345	0.406	0.335
7	LaPorta,Matt	0.265	0.330	0.443	0.336
8	Peralta,Jhonny	0.265	0.329	0.420	0.328
9	Valbuena,Luis	0.256	0.325	0.384	0.314

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 760

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Pierre,Juan	0.288	0.335	0.357	0.318
2	Beckham,Gordon	0.267	0.331	0.450	0.340
3	Quentin,Carlos	0.261	0.332	0.459	0.344
4	Konerko,Paul	0.269	0.348	0.465	0.354
5	Jones,Andruw	0.212	0.308	0.416	0.318
6	Rios,Alexis	0.275	0.328	0.442	0.338
7	Pierzynski,A.J.	0.285	0.321	0.417	0.322
8	Teahen,Mark	0.259	0.325	0.426	0.329
9	Ramirez,Alexei	0.288	0.338	0.427	0.336

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 765

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Konerko,Paul	0.269	0.348	0.465	0.354
2	Teahen,Mark	0.259	0.325	0.426	0.329
3	Quentin,Carlos	0.261	0.332	0.459	0.344
4	Beckham,Gordon	0.267	0.331	0.450	0.340
5	Ramirez,Alexei	0.288	0.338	0.427	0.336
6	Rios,Alexis	0.275	0.328	0.442	0.338
7	Pierre,Juan	0.288	0.335	0.357	0.318
8	Pierzynski,A.J.	0.285	0.321	0.417	0.322
9	Jones,Andruw	0.212	0.308	0.416	0.318

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Texas Rangers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 829

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Borbon,Julio	0.283	0.328	0.366	0.317
2	Young,Michael	0.301	0.356	0.445	0.353
3	Hamilton,Josh	0.283	0.347	0.488	0.361
4	Guerrero,Vladimir	0.304	0.366	0.509	0.377
5	Kinsler,Ian	0.274	0.346	0.486	0.366
6	Cruz,Nelson	0.270	0.342	0.512	0.367
7	Davis,Chris	0.251	0.303	0.475	0.331
8	Saltalamacchia,Jarrod	0.248	0.316	0.396	0.312
9	Andrus,Elvis	0.270	0.333	0.387	0.329

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 833

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Young,Michael	0.301	0.356	0.445	0.353
2	Guerrero,Vladimir	0.304	0.366	0.509	0.377
3	Cruz,Nelson	0.270	0.342	0.512	0.367
4	Kinsler,Ian	0.274	0.346	0.486	0.366
5	Hamilton,Josh	0.283	0.347	0.488	0.361
6	Davis,Chris	0.251	0.303	0.475	0.331
7	Saltalamacchia,Jarrod	0.248	0.316	0.396	0.312
8	Andrus,Elvis	0.270	0.333	0.387	0.329
9	Borbon,Julio	0.283	0.328	0.366	0.317

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Seattle Mariners

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 718

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Suzuki,Ichiro	0.325	0.369	0.414	0.353
2	Figgins,Chone	0.280	0.377	0.362	0.343
3	Kotchman,Casey	0.271	0.340	0.406	0.330
4	Bradley,Milton	0.254	0.367	0.421	0.351
5	Griffey Jr. ,Ken	0.214	0.324	0.372	0.312
6	Lopez,Jose	0.275	0.310	0.430	0.320
7	Gutierrez,Franklin	0.266	0.324	0.408	0.323
8	Wilson,Jack	0.251	0.300	0.345	0.287
9	Johnson,Rob	0.266	0.318	0.356	0.300

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 722

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bradley,Milton	0.254	0.367	0.421	0.351
2	Figgins,Chone	0.280	0.377	0.362	0.343
3	Suzuki,Ichiro	0.325	0.369	0.414	0.353
4	Kotchman,Casey	0.271	0.340	0.406	0.330
5	Lopez,Jose	0.275	0.310	0.430	0.320
6	Gutierrez,Franklin	0.266	0.324	0.408	0.323
7	Wilson,Jack	0.251	0.300	0.345	0.287
8	Johnson,Rob	0.266	0.318	0.356	0.300
9	Griffey Jr. ,Ken	0.214	0.324	0.372	0.312

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Oakland Athletics

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 729

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Crisp,Coco	0.248	0.324	0.370	0.317
2	Davis,Rajai	0.286	0.340	0.395	0.334
3	Sweeney,Ryan	0.291	0.352	0.415	0.339
4	Kouzmanoff,Kevin	0.264	0.304	0.448	0.323
5	Suzuki,Kurt	0.277	0.331	0.404	0.325
6	Chavez,Eric	0.242	0.319	0.427	0.326
7	Ellis,Mark	0.268	0.327	0.411	0.326
8	Barton,Daric	0.268	0.361	0.425	0.347
9	Pennington,Cliff	0.258	0.333	0.350	0.312

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 733

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Barton,Daric	0.268	0.361	0.425	0.347
2	Sweeney,Ryan	0.291	0.352	0.415	0.339
3	Chavez,Eric	0.242	0.319	0.427	0.326
4	Ellis,Mark	0.268	0.327	0.411	0.326
5	Davis,Rajai	0.286	0.340	0.395	0.334
6	Suzuki,Kurt	0.277	0.331	0.404	0.325
7	Kouzmanoff,Kevin	0.264	0.304	0.448	0.323
8	Crisp,Coco	0.248	0.324	0.370	0.317
9	Pennington,Cliff	0.258	0.333	0.350	0.312

Optimized Lineup with Cust, Buck

Expected Runs/Season: 758

(Cust是ZiPS預測A's最好的打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Cust,Jack	0.240	0.377	0.428	0.359
2	Barton,Daric	0.268	0.361	0.425	0.347
3	Ellis,Mark	0.268	0.327	0.411	0.326
4	Sweeney,Ryan	0.291	0.352	0.415	0.339
5	Davis,Rajai	0.286	0.340	0.395	0.334
6	Suzuki,Kurt	0.277	0.331	0.404	0.325
7	Kouzmanoff,Kevin	0.264	0.304	0.448	0.323
8	Buck,Travis	0.257	0.325	0.397	0.320
9	Pennington,Cliff	0.258	0.333	0.350	0.312

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Los Angeles Angels

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 833

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Aybar,Erick	0.289	0.331	0.406	0.325
2	Abreu,Bobby	0.283	0.378	0.436	0.365
3	Hunter,Torii	0.288	0.350	0.489	0.363
4	Matsui,Hideki	0.281	0.361	0.462	0.359
5	Morales,Kendry	0.287	0.336	0.485	0.351
6	Rivera,Juan	0.281	0.330	0.460	0.340
7	Kendrick,Howie	0.294	0.331	0.437	0.335
8	Napoli,Mike	0.260	0.350	0.488	0.361
9	Wood,Brandon	0.244	0.301	0.422	0.314

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 838

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Abreu,Bobby	0.283	0.378	0.436	0.365
2	Matsui,Hideki	0.281	0.361	0.462	0.359
3	Napoli,Mike	0.260	0.350	0.488	0.361
4	Hunter,Torii	0.288	0.350	0.489	0.363
5	Morales,Kendry	0.287	0.336	0.485	0.351
6	Kendrick,Howie	0.294	0.331	0.437	0.335
7	Rivera,Juan	0.281	0.330	0.460	0.340
8	Wood,Brandon	0.244	0.301	0.422	0.314
9	Aybar,Erick	0.289	0.331	0.406	0.325

Optimized Lineup with Izturis

Expected Runs/Season: 854

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Abreu,Bobby	0.283	0.378	0.436	0.365
2	Matsui,Hideki	0.281	0.361	0.462	0.359
3	Napoli,Mike	0.260	0.350	0.488	0.361
4	Hunter,Torii	0.288	0.350	0.489	0.363
5	Morales,Kendry	0.287	0.336	0.485	0.351
6	Izturis,Maicer	0.285	0.351	0.411	0.340
7	Rivera,Juan	0.281	0.330	0.460	0.340
8	Kendrick,Howie	0.294	0.331	0.437	0.335
9	Aybar,Erick	0.289	0.331	0.406	0.325

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Washington Nationals

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 689

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Morgan,Nyjer	0.281	0.333	0.359	0.316
2	Harris,Willie	0.249	0.342	0.397	0.331
3	Zimmerman,Ryan	0.285	0.357	0.501	0.369
4	Dunn,Adam	0.256	0.389	0.512	0.390
5	Willingham,Josh	0.264	0.351	0.491	0.363
6	Kennedy,Adam	0.274	0.330	0.382	0.318
7	Rodriguez,Ivan	0.254	0.288	0.374	0.290
8	Desmond,Ian	0.270	0.332	0.388	0.323
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 696

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Desmond,Ian	0.270	0.332	0.388	0.323
2	Dunn,Adam	0.256	0.389	0.512	0.390
3	Willingham,Josh	0.264	0.351	0.491	0.363
4	Zimmerman,Ryan	0.285	0.357	0.501	0.369
5	Harris,Willie	0.249	0.342	0.397	0.331
6	Morgan,Nyjer	0.281	0.333	0.359	0.316
7	Kennedy,Adam	0.274	0.330	0.382	0.318
8	Rodriguez,Ivan	0.254	0.288	0.374	0.290
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Dukes

Expected Runs/Season: 702

(其實照ZiPS的預測, 把Morgan換下去可以打下713分, 當然打下最多分的陣容不見得是最佳陣容, Morgan的防守很可能可以比Dukes省下10分以上)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Desmond,Ian	0.270	0.332	0.388	0.323
2	Dunn,Adam	0.256	0.389	0.512	0.390
3	Willingham,Josh	0.264	0.351	0.491	0.363
4	Zimmerman,Ryan	0.285	0.357	0.501	0.369
5	Dukes,Elijah	0.254	0.350	0.432	0.341
6	Morgan,Nyjer	0.281	0.333	0.359	0.316
7	Kennedy,Adam	0.274	0.330	0.382	0.318
8	Rodriguez,Ivan	0.254	0.288	0.374	0.290
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 820

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Rollins,Jimmy	0.274	0.331	0.448	0.346
2	Polanco,Placido	0.302	0.344	0.421	0.337
3	Utley,Chase	0.301	0.383	0.528	0.396
4	Howard,Ryan	0.273	0.369	0.572	0.397
5	Werth,Jayson	0.272	0.369	0.495	0.378
6	Ibanez,Raul	0.289	0.360	0.531	0.380
7	Victorino,Shane	0.290	0.351	0.442	0.351
8	Ruiz,Carlos	0.251	0.340	0.391	0.326
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 827

(又一個很詭異的陣容)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Ruiz,Carlos	0.251	0.340	0.391	0.326
2	Werth,Jayson	0.272	0.369	0.495	0.378
3	Howard,Ryan	0.273	0.369	0.572	0.397
4	Utley,Chase	0.301	0.383	0.528	0.396
5	Ibanez,Raul	0.289	0.360	0.531	0.380
6	Victorino,Shane	0.290	0.351	0.442	0.351
7	Rollins,Jimmy	0.274	0.331	0.448	0.346
8	Polanco,Placido	0.302	0.344	0.421	0.337
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 New York Mets

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 766

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Reyes,Jose	0.294	0.365	0.455	0.369
2	Castillo,Luis	0.290	0.372	0.349	0.335
3	Wright,David	0.307	0.400	0.507	0.398
4	Beltran,Carlos	0.294	0.386	0.514	0.394
5	Bay,Jason	0.270	0.366	0.523	0.382
6	Murphy,Daniel	0.274	0.331	0.408	0.325
7	Francoeur,Jeff	0.269	0.310	0.425	0.318
8	Barajas,Rod	0.229	0.279	0.382	0.288
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 770

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Castillo,Luis	0.290	0.372	0.349	0.335
2	Wright,David	0.307	0.400	0.507	0.398
3	Bay,Jason	0.270	0.366	0.523	0.382
4	Beltran,Carlos	0.294	0.386	0.514	0.394
5	Reyes,Jose	0.294	0.365	0.455	0.369
6	Murphy,Daniel	0.274	0.331	0.408	0.325
7	Francoeur,Jeff	0.269	0.310	0.425	0.318
8	Barajas,Rod	0.229	0.279	0.382	0.288
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup without Beltran, Reyes

Expected Runs/Season: 696

(這就是Mets今年可能打不到700分的原因)

(註:ZiPS預測Jacobs和Tatis打得比Murphy好)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Castillo,Luis	0.290	0.372	0.349	0.335
2	Wright,David	0.307	0.400	0.507	0.398
3	Bay,Jason	0.270	0.366	0.523	0.382
4	Pagan,Angel	0.285	0.342	0.446	0.346
5	Murphy,Daniel	0.274	0.331	0.408	0.325
6	Francoeur,Jeff	0.269	0.310	0.425	0.318
7	Barajas,Rod	0.229	0.279	0.382	0.288
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Cora,Alex	0.251	0.311	0.336	0.292

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Florida Marlins

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 708

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Coghlan,Chris	0.287	0.356	0.413	0.344
2	Maybin,Cameron	0.243	0.324	0.354	0.307
3	Ramirez,Hanley	0.320	0.392	0.537	0.405
4	Cantu,Jorge	0.271	0.326	0.434	0.331
5	Uggla,Dan	0.246	0.340	0.462	0.348
6	Ross,Cody	0.262	0.318	0.473	0.340
7	Baker,John	0.255	0.335	0.388	0.322
8	Sanchez,Gaby	0.272	0.346	0.416	0.337
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 713

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Baker,John	0.255	0.335	0.388	0.322
2	Uggla,Dan	0.246	0.340	0.462	0.348
3	Sanchez,Gaby	0.272	0.346	0.416	0.337
4	Ramirez,Hanley	0.320	0.392	0.537	0.405
5	Coghlan,Chris	0.287	0.356	0.413	0.344
6	Cantu,Jorge	0.271	0.326	0.434	0.331
7	Ross,Cody	0.262	0.318	0.473	0.340
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Maybin,Cameron	0.243	0.324	0.354	0.307

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Atlanta Braves

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 791

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	McLouth,Nate	0.268	0.349	0.467	0.358
2	Prado,Martin	0.300	0.354	0.439	0.347
3	Jones,Chipper	0.295	0.408	0.465	0.387
4	Glaus,Troy	0.252	0.361	0.441	0.354
5	McCann,Brian	0.288	0.355	0.497	0.367
6	Escobar,Yunel	0.294	0.362	0.416	0.345
7	Heyward,Jason	0.275	0.344	0.429	0.341
8	Diaz,Matt	0.307	0.355	0.463	0.358
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 796

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jones,Chipper	0.295	0.408	0.465	0.387
2	Glaus,Troy	0.252	0.361	0.441	0.354
3	Escobar,Yunel	0.294	0.362	0.416	0.345
4	McCann,Brian	0.288	0.355	0.497	0.367
5	Prado,Martin	0.300	0.354	0.439	0.347
6	Diaz,Matt	0.307	0.355	0.463	0.358
7	McLouth,Nate	0.268	0.349	0.467	0.358
8	Heyward,Jason	0.275	0.344	0.429	0.341
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Braves的先發八人也就是ZiPS預測隊上最能打的前八名

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 St. Louis Cardinals

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 792

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Schumaker,Skip	0.299	0.358	0.404	0.339
2	Rasmus,Colby	0.260	0.327	0.411	0.327
3	Pujols,Albert	0.333	0.443	0.635	0.455
4	Holliday,Matt	0.308	0.384	0.528	0.394
5	Ludwick,Ryan	0.282	0.346	0.511	0.366
6	Molina,Yadier	0.289	0.352	0.389	0.331
7	Freese,David	0.265	0.326	0.429	0.330
8	Ryan,Brendan	0.274	0.325	0.372	0.312
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 795

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Molina,Yadier	0.289	0.352	0.389	0.331
2	Schumaker,Skip	0.299	0.358	0.404	0.339
3	Pujols,Albert	0.333	0.443	0.635	0.455
4	Holliday,Matt	0.308	0.384	0.528	0.394
5	Ludwick,Ryan	0.282	0.346	0.511	0.366
6	Rasmus,Colby	0.260	0.327	0.411	0.327
7	Freese,David	0.265	0.326	0.429	0.330
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Ryan,Brendan	0.274	0.325	0.372	0.312

Optimized Lineup with Felipe Lopez

Expected Runs/Season: 802

(ZiPS預測Allen Criag有279/330/434, 是比Freese好, 但是他還沒有大聯盟經驗, 所以不考慮他的預測成績)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Schumaker,Skip	0.299	0.358	0.404	0.339
2	Pujols,Albert	0.333	0.443	0.635	0.455
3	Holliday,Matt	0.308	0.384	0.528	0.394
4	Molina,Yadier	0.289	0.352	0.389	0.331
5	Ludwick,Ryan	0.282	0.346	0.511	0.366
6	Rasmus,Colby	0.260	0.327	0.411	0.327
7	Freese,David	0.265	0.326	0.429	0.330
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Lopez,Felipe	0.266	0.342	0.377	0.322

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 683

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Iwamura,Akinori	0.286	0.359	0.400	0.339
2	McCutchen,Andrew	0.281	0.356	0.446	0.354
3	Jones,Garrett	0.285	0.344	0.494	0.361
4	Doumit,Ryan	0.276	0.327	0.452	0.338
5	Milledge,Lastings	0.272	0.322	0.398	0.319
6	Clement,Jeff	0.266	0.337	0.461	0.345
7	LaRoche,Andy	0.260	0.343	0.399	0.330
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Cedeno,Ronny	0.252	0.301	0.386	0.302

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 689

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	LaRoche,Andy	0.260	0.343	0.399	0.330
2	Iwamura,Akinori	0.286	0.359	0.400	0.339
3	Clement,Jeff	0.266	0.337	0.461	0.345
4	Jones,Garrett	0.285	0.344	0.494	0.361
5	McCutchen,Andrew	0.281	0.356	0.446	0.354
6	Doumit,Ryan	0.276	0.327	0.452	0.338
7	Milledge,Lastings	0.272	0.322	0.398	0.319
8	Cedeno,Ronny	0.252	0.301	0.386	0.302
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Church

Expected Runs/Season: 703

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	LaRoche,Andy	0.260	0.343	0.399	0.330
2	Iwamura,Akinori	0.286	0.359	0.400	0.339
3	Church,Ryan	0.278	0.346	0.439	0.344
4	Jones,Garrett	0.285	0.344	0.494	0.361
5	McCutchen,Andrew	0.281	0.356	0.446	0.354
6	Clement,Jeff	0.266	0.337	0.461	0.345
7	Doumit,Ryan	0.276	0.327	0.452	0.338
8	Cedeno,Ronny	0.252	0.301	0.386	0.302
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Milwaukee Brewers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 698

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Weeks,Rickie	0.240	0.332	0.419	0.333
2	Escobar,Alcides	0.279	0.322	0.378	0.315
3	Braun,Ryan	0.295	0.356	0.554	0.386
4	Fielder,Prince	0.277	0.380	0.552	0.397
5	McGehee,Casey	0.263	0.322	0.397	0.316
6	Hart,Corey	0.263	0.321	0.453	0.334
7	Zaun,Gregg	0.243	0.346	0.373	0.325
8	Gomez,Carlos	0.250	0.304	0.369	0.302
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 706

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Zaun,Gregg	0.243	0.346	0.373	0.325
2	Fielder,Prince	0.277	0.380	0.552	0.397
3	Weeks,Rickie	0.240	0.332	0.419	0.333
4	Braun,Ryan	0.295	0.356	0.554	0.386
5	Hart,Corey	0.263	0.321	0.453	0.334
6	Escobar,Alcides	0.279	0.322	0.378	0.315
7	Gomez,Carlos	0.250	0.304	0.369	0.302
8	McGehee,Casey	0.263	0.322	0.397	0.316
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Gerut

Expected Runs/Season: 726

(不太確定Edmonds還能不能守CF, 不過ZiPS認為他是比Hart和Gerut都差的打者)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Zaun,Gregg	0.243	0.346	0.373	0.325
2	Fielder,Prince	0.277	0.380	0.552	0.397
3	Weeks,Rickie	0.240	0.332	0.419	0.333
4	Braun,Ryan	0.295	0.356	0.554	0.386
5	Gerut,Jody	0.267	0.326	0.443	0.334
6	Escobar,Alcides	0.279	0.322	0.378	0.315
7	Hart,Corey	0.263	0.321	0.453	0.334
8	McGehee,Casey	0.263	0.322	0.397	0.316
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Houston Astros

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 662

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
3	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
6	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
7	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
8	Manzella,Thomas	0.247	0.297	0.346	0.286
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 663

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
3	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
6	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
7	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
8	Manzella,Thomas	0.247	0.297	0.346	0.286
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Keppinger

Expected Runs/Season: 682

(用Sullivan取代Bourn並不會打下更多分數)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Keppinger,Jeff	0.279	0.336	0.385	0.319
3	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
6	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
7	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
8	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Cincinnati Reds

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 681

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Stubbs,Drew	0.235	0.307	0.348	0.297
2	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
3	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
4	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
5	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
6	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
7	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
8	Hernandez,Ramon	0.255	0.323	0.385	0.314
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 685

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
2	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
3	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
4	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
5	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
6	Hernandez,Ramon	0.255	0.323	0.385	0.314
7	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Stubbs,Drew	0.235	0.307	0.348	0.297

Optimized Lineup with Dickerson, Hanigan

Expected Runs/Season: 706

(ZiPS相當看衰Stubbs)

(這打線不管從傳統角度或stathead角度都相當地詭異)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Hanigan,Ryan	0.267	0.343	0.357	0.317
2	Dickerson,Chris	0.247	0.337	0.394	0.330
3	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
4	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
5	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
6	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
7	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
8	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 767

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
2	Fukudome,Kosuke	0.259	0.366	0.412	0.346
3	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
6	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
7	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
8	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 768

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Fukudome,Kosuke	0.259	0.366	0.412	0.346
2	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
3	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
6	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
7	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
8	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Xavier Nady

Expected Runs/Season: 768

(事實上比使用Fukudome還低一點. 如果讓Fukudome和Nady一起先發, Byrd坐板凳, 一樣是768分)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
2	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
3	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
6	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
7	Nady,Xavier	0.288	0.332	0.473	0.346
8	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 San Francisco Giants

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 688

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Rowand,Aaron	0.273	0.323	0.431	0.328
2	Sanchez,Freddy	0.296	0.333	0.413	0.327
3	Sandoval,Pablo	0.320	0.370	0.516	0.380
4	Huff,Aubrey	0.270	0.333	0.448	0.338
5	DeRosa,Mark	0.273	0.343	0.434	0.341
6	Molina,Bengie	0.271	0.300	0.424	0.312
7	Schierholtz,Nate	0.289	0.325	0.459	0.338
8	Renteria,Edgar	0.280	0.341	0.388	0.326
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 695

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Renteria,Edgar	0.280	0.341	0.388	0.326
2	DeRosa,Mark	0.273	0.343	0.434	0.341
3	Huff,Aubrey	0.270	0.333	0.448	0.338
4	Sandoval,Pablo	0.320	0.370	0.516	0.380
5	Sanchez,Freddy	0.296	0.333	0.413	0.327
6	Rowand,Aaron	0.273	0.323	0.431	0.328
7	Schierholtz,Nate	0.289	0.325	0.459	0.338
8	Molina,Bengie	0.271	0.300	0.424	0.312
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Posey, Lewis

Expected Runs/Season: 704

我也不曉得ZiPS為什麼那麼看好Fred Lewis......

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Posey,Buster	0.263	0.342	0.398	0.330
2	Lewis,Fred	0.274	0.351	0.427	0.343
3	DeRosa,Mark	0.273	0.343	0.434	0.341
4	Sandoval,Pablo	0.320	0.370	0.516	0.380
5	Sanchez,Freddy	0.296	0.333	0.413	0.327
6	Renteria,Edgar	0.280	0.341	0.388	0.326
7	Huff,Aubrey	0.270	0.333	0.448	0.338
8	Rowand,Aaron	0.273	0.323	0.431	0.328
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 San Diego Padres

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 580

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Gwynn,Anthony	0.258	0.326	0.321	0.299
2	Eckstein,David	0.264	0.317	0.335	0.295
3	Gonzalez,Adrian	0.268	0.366	0.507	0.375
4	Blanks,Kyle	0.246	0.325	0.406	0.322
5	Headley,Chase	0.252	0.325	0.383	0.316
6	Venable,Will	0.249	0.307	0.385	0.307
7	Hundley,Nicholas	0.230	0.291	0.370	0.292
8	Cabrera,Everth	0.243	0.317	0.328	0.299
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 583

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Gwynn,Anthony	0.258	0.326	0.321	0.299
2	Headley,Chase	0.252	0.325	0.383	0.316
3	Blanks,Kyle	0.246	0.325	0.406	0.322
4	Gonzalez,Adrian	0.268	0.366	0.507	0.375
5	Cabrera,Everth	0.243	0.317	0.328	0.299
6	Eckstein,David	0.264	0.317	0.335	0.295
7	Venable,Will	0.249	0.307	0.385	0.307
8	Hundley,Nicholas	0.230	0.291	0.370	0.292
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Scott Hairston

Expected Runs/Season: 597

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Headley,Chase	0.252	0.325	0.383	0.316
2	Blanks,Kyle	0.246	0.325	0.406	0.322
3	Gonzalez,Adrian	0.268	0.366	0.507	0.375
4	Hairston,Scott	0.243	0.305	0.424	0.317
5	Cabrera,Everth	0.243	0.317	0.328	0.299
6	Eckstein,David	0.264	0.317	0.335	0.295
7	Venable,Will	0.249	0.307	0.385	0.307
8	Hundley,Nicholas	0.230	0.291	0.370	0.292
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 777

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Furcal,Rafael	0.275	0.345	0.384	0.328
2	Kemp,Matt	0.300	0.358	0.501	0.373
3	Ethier,Andre	0.286	0.364	0.506	0.374
4	Ramirez,Manny	0.290	0.399	0.538	0.403
5	Loney,James	0.292	0.360	0.444	0.353
6	Blake,Casey	0.268	0.341	0.455	0.346
7	Martin,Russell	0.272	0.363	0.392	0.340
8	Dewitt,Blake	0.250	0.331	0.397	0.322
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 783

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Martin,Russell	0.272	0.363	0.392	0.340
2	Ramirez,Manny	0.290	0.399	0.538	0.403
3	Ethier,Andre	0.286	0.364	0.506	0.374
4	Loney,James	0.292	0.360	0.444	0.353
5	Kemp,Matt	0.300	0.358	0.501	0.373
6	Furcal,Rafael	0.275	0.345	0.384	0.328
7	Blake,Casey	0.268	0.341	0.455	0.346
8	Dewitt,Blake	0.250	0.331	0.397	0.322
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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